WTIO31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 81.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 81.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 9.3N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 9.4N 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.3N 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.0N 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 81.1E. 02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED NATURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH LIES NEAR THE PGTW FIX. SET AT 40KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (PGTW, 35 KTS) AND T3.0 (DEMS, 45 KTS) WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN THE OBJECTIVE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH SRI LANKA WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AFTERWARDS, A DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, SLOWLY TURNING THE SYSTEM WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// NNNN