ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02DEC20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 82.3E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.9S 85.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 592 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL TURNING. A 021104Z SSMIS 
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION 
WITHIN A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK BANDING 
FEATURES. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 20-25KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND 
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN