WTIO31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 82.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 82.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 9.0N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 9.2N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 9.2N 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 9.0N 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 8.7N 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 81.9E. 02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 021108Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO 3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH SRI LANKA, WHICH MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// NNNN