WTIO31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 82.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 82.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 9.2N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 9.4N 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 9.5N 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.4N 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 9.0N 75.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.0E. 02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 020411Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE PGTW / DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON HIGHER SATCON, ADT ESTIMATES NEAR 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THESE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO HIGH BASED ON A 020411Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE AND 020136Z CFOSAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 020014Z SMAP IMAGE INDICATED MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SURFACE WINDS OF 31 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA THEN FURTHER WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// NNNN