ABPW10 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/020300Z-020600ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.5N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PLUME OF 
DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 020048Z MHS METOP-B 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DISTINCT LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
AND MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL 
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N 
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A LARGE REGION OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
OVERHEAD. A 012103Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS AN 
OBLATE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE 
SOUTH. A 012335Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE HIGHLY ELONGATED AND 
ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND DUE TO A WESTERLY WIND 
BURST TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKER (5 TO 15 KNOT) WINDS TO THE NORTH. 96W 
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE 
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, NAVGEM SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT 
SOLUTION, SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, INTENSIFYING TO A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARAS 1.B.(1) AND 1.B.
(2).//
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