WTIO31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 83.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 83.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 9.5N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 9.7N 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 9.6N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 9.3N 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.0N 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 8.6N 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 83.0E. 02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN, HAVING DEVELOPED A CDO, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO THE COMPACT LLCC, AS DEPICTED IN A 012237Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM DEMS, IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG POINT-SOURCE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING STRONGLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KNOTS). SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS WITHHIN THE BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR OVER CENTRAL INDIA. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE WEAKNESS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING TC 05B TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTERWARD AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24, THEN WILL TRACK OVER THE PALK STRAIT AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK WHICH ISN'T CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOUTH OF INDIA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER COCHIN, INDIA BY TAU 96, WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 BASED ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK, THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. // NNNN