SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 002 WTIO31 PGTW 012100 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 8.1N 84.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 84.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 8.9N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 9.1N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 9.1N 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 8.9N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 8.4N 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 8.0N 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 83.7E. 01DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL CONSOLIDATING, WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 011423Z ASCAT BULLSEYE AND A 011536Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND DEMS. THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25 KNOT WINDS, WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES WERE 45 KNOTS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY APPROXIMATES THE AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES AND MEASUREMENTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK POINT-SOURCE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING STRONG EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KNOTS0.ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BROAD WEAKNESS OR COL REGION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIA. TC 05B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DISSIPATES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST, THEN SOUTHWEST, TRANSIT THE GULF OF MANNAR AND THEN MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA BY TAU 72, UNDER THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED EARLIER, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS AT OR NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOUTH OF INDIA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER COCHIN, INDIA BY TAU 96, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SRI LANKA AND REMAINS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, PARTICULARLY AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// BT #0001 NNNN