WTIO31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010921ZDEC2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 7.8N 84.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.8N 84.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 8.6N 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 9.1N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 9.1N 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 8.9N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 8.4N 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 7.8N 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 84.4E. 01DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 011311Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN SRI LANKA, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, THEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF INDIA, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 010930).// NNNN