ABIO10 PGTW 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/011000Z-011800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010921ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.5N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM 
EAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 010432Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE 
BANDING. INVEST 98B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 010930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 852 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010043Z NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL 
A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD 
AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR INVEST 98B AND 
DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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