WTIO21 PGTW 010930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300921ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 85.6E TO 9.6N 80.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
010900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
85.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.5N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM 
EAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 010432Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE 
BANDING. INVEST 98B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020930Z.//
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