ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.7N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
010438Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS 
DISTURBANCE HAS FORMED ADJACENT TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W 
WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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