ABIO10 PGTW 301800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/301800ZNOV2020-011800ZDEC2020// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 462 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A 301158Z NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL- ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHEAST. 98B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, FLIRTING WITH THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BEFORE MOVING ACROSS SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 300930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 508 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION PUSHED TO THE PERIPHERY. A 301319Z F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CONSOLIDATING, DRAMATICALLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY, AND INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN