ABIO10 PGTW 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/
REISSUED/301000ZNOV2020-301800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300921ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(EMI) DISPLAYS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A BROAD 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A PARTIAL 300711Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS SHOWS FORMATIVE 
BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH 
ROBUST POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL 
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SRI 
LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 300930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 89.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 982 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSING 
IN BUT STILL SHEARED WESTWARD. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 
ELONGATED WIND FIELD PRESENT IN A 300204Z ASCAT-A PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES 
AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY A NOW REDUCED (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO POSSIBLY WARNING CRITERIA IN 72-120 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED AS THE CYCLONE TURNS 
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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