ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZNOV2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.5N 92.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM 
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING 
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
FORMATIVE BANDING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CAN ALSO BE SEEN CLOSING IN 
FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW 
(<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.2S 91.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE 
CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSING IN BUT STILL SHEARED WESTWARD. THE CURRENT 
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 291459Z 25KM-RESOLUTION ASCAT 
BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH 
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY A NOW REDUCED (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO POSSIBLY WARNING CRITERIA IN 72-120 
HOURS. AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED AS THE 
CYCLONE TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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