ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZNOV2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.5N 92.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 912 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED, FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING. A 281457Z 
METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 318 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD LOWER LEVEL TURNING WITH CONVECTION 
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 281215Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND AN OVERALL ABSENCE 
OF DEEP CONVECTION. 95S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
95S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. 
NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE THE EXCEPTIONS, INDICATING MARGINAL 
CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN