ABIO10 PGTW 281230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/281230Z-281800ZNOV2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N 
92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 912 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER IS PLACED WITH POOR 
CONFIDENCE BUT IS CONSTRAINED SOMEWHAT BY A 281017Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONSOLIDATION WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. 
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS SRI LANKA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.9S 91.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CIRCLING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 271227Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST TURNING INTO THE LLC WITH 
A LACK OF OVERALL ORGANIZATION. 95S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. 
NAVGEM IS THE EXCEPTION, WHICH INDICATES MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW//
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