ABIO10 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270200Z-271800ZNOV2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 04B) HAS PERSISTED 
NEAR 14.0N 80.7E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 
INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 
262321Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS THE FULLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING BACK OVER WATER, 
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261427Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED THE LLCC STILL OVER LAND WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTH. 04B IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES HEAVILY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE INDIAN COASTLINE. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 04B QUICKLY MOVE BACK 
OVERLAND AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITHIN TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CIRCLING A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BEING SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 
262146Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BAND TO THE EAST TURNING INTO THE LLC WITH A LACK OF OVERALL 
ORGANIZATION. 95S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S 
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
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