ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25NOV20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6N 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 784 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO32 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 03A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8N 44.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 44.0E, APPROXIMATELY 53 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEAKENING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251440Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TOTAL LACK OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LLCC. THE REMNANTS OF 03A IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY 
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND CONTINUALLY INCREASING FRICTIONAL 
EFFECTS AS THE REMNANTS OF 03A APPROACHES THE AFRICAN COAST. GLOBAL 
MDODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 03A WILL QUICKLY 
MOVE OVER THE AFRICAN COAST WITH NO SIGNIFICATION INTENSIFICATION. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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