WTIO32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 10.8N 82.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 82.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 11.7N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 12.5N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.8N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 14.5N 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.0N 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 782 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF STORM MOVEMENT IN THE MSI LOOP REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING CONVECTION FEATURES 242347Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY PGTW/DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61KTS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF CHENNAI AND WEAKEN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 48 NAUTICAL MILES NEAR LANDFALL. THIS AGREEMENT BECOMES POOR THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES TO 386 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS INCREASING SPREAD REMAINS LARGE DUE TO UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH DIVERGE SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.// NNNN