WTIO32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 82.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 82.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.6N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 11.4N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 12.5N 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.0N 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.0N 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. ANALYSIS OF STORM MOVEMENT IN THE EIR LOOP REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS REMAINED QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING CONVECTION FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 241622Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (59 KTS) AND A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF CHENNAI AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 100 NAUTICAL MILES AT LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, THIS AGREEMENT BECOMES POOR AS THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGES TO 420 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IS LARGELY DUE TO UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND KEEP IT OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. NNNN