WTIO32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 83.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 83.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 9.7N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 10.1N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 10.9N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 11.7N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 12.7N 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 83.1E. 24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232345Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, ALIGNING WITH THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 1947Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WAS UNEXPECTED, DESPITE THIS MOTION TC 04B IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN WEST OF INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SPREAD OF 263 NAUTICAL MILES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS AT TAU 72, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 48 PARTIALLY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04B WILL WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN