WTIO32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 10.1N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.5N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 11.1N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 11.9N 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.3N 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.0E. 23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RECENT USABLE MICROWAVE PASSES TO HELP DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, ALIGNING WITH THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 1621Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS. TC 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND WILL WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN