WTIO32 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221521ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 83.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 83.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 10.3N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 10.6N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 11.1N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 11.9N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.6N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.2N 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 83.8E. 23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, A 231317Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER THE DECCAN PLATEAU WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 221530).// NNNN