WTIO31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 50.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 50.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 10.9N 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 11.0N 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 10.8N 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E. 23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE 222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.// NNNN