WTIO31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 50.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 50.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 10.3N 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.4N 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 10.5N 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.2N 45.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 50.3E. 22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS NOW MADE LANDFALL AND MOVED APPROXIMATELY 20NM INLAND BY THE 221800Z HOUR, BUT HAS RETAINED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS STRENGTH AS THE VORTEX DEGRADES. ANIMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WITH THE CONVECTION WARMING AND BEING SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO INCREASED DRAG ON THE LLCC DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IS PLACED NEAR THE PGTW FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT A GENEROUS 70 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MEASUREMENTS, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL INDICATING A 20 KNOT DECAY OVER SIX HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECAY OVER THE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN, FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 18, AND STAYS OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 48, REINTENSIFYING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24, WHILE GFS INDICATES THE VORTEX TURNING SHARPLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY TAU 36. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.// NNNN