ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221521ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22NOV20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4N 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, 
YEMEN, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.5N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH THE 
MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS FORMATIVE BANDING. A 221522Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE FRAGMENTED BANDING STRUTCTURE TO 
THE NORTH, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. A 221521Z METOP-B 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WITH A 
SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN. 97B IS CURRENTLY 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD INDIA, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS; HOWEVER, GFS PRESENTS A MUCH FASTER 
INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO, INTENSIFYING 97B TO WARNING THRESHOLD 
WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTIO21 PGTW 221530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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