WTIO31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 51.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 51.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 10.6N 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 10.8N 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 10.9N 45.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 10.7N 44.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 51.0E. 22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A, WHICH REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A MIDGET SYSTEM, PEAKED AT 100 KNOTS AT 22/06Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. HOWEVER, EIR STILL DEPICTS A RAGGED 12NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, A 221223Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT EYEWALL SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/5.5 (90/102 KNOTS); 22/1145-1215Z ADT ESTIMATES OF 4.9 (87-88 KNOTS); AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. OVERALL, UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNO AND AEMN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 03 OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION FORECASTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// NNNN