WTIO31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.4N 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 10.5N 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.5N 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 10.4N 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 52.0E. 22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A IS CLASSIFIED AS A MIDGET SYSTEM AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED SINCE 21/12Z (30-35 KNOTS) TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT EYEWALL (ABOUT 60NM DIAMETER) WITH A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND SURROUNDING LIGHT GRAY YIELDING A DATA-T 5.0 PLUS A +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A FINAL-T ESTIMATE OF T5.5. ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER, WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH VERY SMALL SYSTEMS, BUT HAVE INCREASED TO 4.3 (72 KNOTS) WITH A RAW T# OF 5.8 AT 22/0745Z. A 22/0445Z ASCAT-A UHR IMAGE SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 61 KNOTS, WHICH REPRESENTS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE ASCAT WINDS. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE ASCAT IMAGERY. OVERALL, UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNO AND AEMN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 09 OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION FORECASTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// NNNN