WTIO31 PGTW 220300 AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 53.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 53.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.3N 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 10.5N 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 10.6N 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 10.7N 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 53.3E. 22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH EIR NOW SHOWING INDICATIONS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 220027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT HEDGE UPWARD FROM AN 220300Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED PRIMARILY ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (27 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR- TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY NOW FORECAST TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.// NNNN