WTIO31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.6N 51.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 10.7N 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 10.9N 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 10.8N 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 53.6E. 22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT, WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AFTER ABSORBING MOST OF THE VORTICITY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 96A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A DEARTH OF MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH POSITIONING BEING LIMITED TO ANALYSIS OF THE WRAP IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. TC 03A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (27-28 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR- TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// NNNN