ABIO10 PGTW 211800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZNOV2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 57.1E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST -SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 1149Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, ALONG WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A 1612Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. 95A IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LUKEWARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 56.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 57.1E, APPROXIMATELY 391 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE LLCC AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 95A. A 1612Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST. 96A IS CURRENLTY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LUKEWARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL TRACK AROUND 95A, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED ENTIRELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A 1202Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SMALL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 97B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD OVER SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN