WTIO31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E. 21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES, AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT- A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800).// NNNN