ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/211800Z-221800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/11210751ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9N 60.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 323 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210621Z METOP-B 89GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 210504Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 30-35KT WINDS 
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95A 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.0N 56.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 210621Z MHS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC. A 210507Z ASCAT-A 25-KM BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT 
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 95A'S UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND BROAD 
DIFFLUENCE. INVEST 96A IS LOCATED ABOUT 316 NM SSW OF INVEST 95A AND 
APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (I.E., FUJIWARA) 
WITH INCREASING APPROACH VELOCITIES. THE 21/00Z GFS RUN INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 96A WILL CONTINUE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE 
DOMINANT SYSTEM, INVEST 95A, AND WILL TRACK CYCLONICALLY AND GET 
ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95A WITHIN THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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