ABIO10 PGTW 210830 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/210830Z-211800ZNOV2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/11210751ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./ RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 60.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210621Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 210504Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 30-35KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 56.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 210621Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WEAKLY- DEFINED LLCC. A 210507Z ASCAT-A 25-KM BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 95A'S UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. INVEST 96A IS LOCATED ABOUT 316 NM SSW OF INVEST 95A AND APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (I.E., FUJIWARA) WITH INCREASING APPROACH VELOCITIES. THE 21/00Z GFS RUN INDICATES THAT INVEST 96A WILL CONTINUE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE DOMINANT SYSTEM, INVEST 95A, AND WILL TRACK CYCLONICALLY AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95A WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH AND AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN