ABIO10 PGTW 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
/OCEAN REISSUED/210200Z-211800ZNOV2020//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.0N 56.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 340 
NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 202350Z 
SSMI F-15 85HZ PASS DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
INVEST 95A IS EMBEDDED WITHIN IN A LARGE AREA OF MONSOON TROUGHING, 
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS (INVESTS 94A AND 96A). INVEST 95A 
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND IS BECOMING THE 
DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 27 
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK 
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.0N 56.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER A 201530Z 
SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE MONSOON TROUGH OVER 
THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT ALSO 
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTER IN THIS AREA. 
THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, 
HOWEVER, THIS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT STRONGLY 
INDICATIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME, AS INVEST 96A 
SPINS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND IS EVENTUALLY 
ABSORBED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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