ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZNOV2020//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 64.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201202Z SSMIS F-16 91H IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 95A HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER 94A WHICH HAS NOW BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INVEST ONLY INVEST 95A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER A 201530Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTER IN THIS AREA. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THIS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT STRONGLY INDICATIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME, AS INVEST 96A SPINS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.      
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN