WTPN21 PHNC 171530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 110.8W TO 15.9N 118.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS 
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 
171500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 
111.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
14.4N 111.4W, APPROXIMATELY 257NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171143Z 
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
SST VALUES OF 28C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS 
WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181530Z.//
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