ABIO10 PGTW 170930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/170930Z-171800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17NOV20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.0S 74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 305NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT 
THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY 
WEAKENS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93S IS CURRENTLY IN UNFAVORABLE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25KTS. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD FOR WHICH 93S HAS ROOM TO STRENGTHEN 
SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF LOW VWS (<15KTS), REMAINS ABOVE THE 
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM FOR SSTS, AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.      
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 01S.//
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