WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 71.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 71.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.3S 70.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 71.4E.
17NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
596 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-WEAKENING, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 170429Z MHS 
89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED 
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 170316Z ASCAT-A 
BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER WITH A SWATH OF 30-35 
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS 
REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, TC 01S IS NOW TRACKING 
OVER COOL SST (25-26C), WHICH SUPPORTS GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 01S IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE COMBINED STEERING 
INFLUENCES OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A 
STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH 
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, 
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. 
TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING 
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 18 FEET.//
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