ABIO10 PGTW 170100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/170100Z-171800ZNOV2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 16NOV20 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 571 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 305NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93S IS CURRENTLY IN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25KTS. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD FOR WHICH 93S HAS ROOM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF LOW VWS(< 15KTS), REMAINS ABOVE THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM FOR SSTS, AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.// NNNN