WTXS31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 71.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 71.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.4S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.6S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.7E. 16NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES A DECAPITATED SYSTEM, WITH THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION RACING SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE LLCC IS OBSCURED UNDER HIGH CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161722Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND CONFIRMED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS, SHOWING 45 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, HAVING SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 26 DEG CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, AND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED APART, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH UKMET ON THE RIGHT AND AFUM ON THE LEFT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE POLEWARD EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// NNNN