WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 72.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 72.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.2S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.0S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.9S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.0S 69.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 72.1E. 16NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM UP; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160451Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND BARBS FROM THE ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO INCREASING (20KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING (<26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, THE NET NEGATIVE EFFECTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND GFS ON THE LEFT MARGINS OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.// NNNN