WTXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.6S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.5S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.5S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.5S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.4S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 73.1E. 15NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER IMPROVED WITH A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP, LENDING ONLY POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS AND CLOSER TO A FMEE CI OF T4.0/65KTS AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CI ESTIMATE OF T3.9/63KTS. FURTHERMORE, A 151310Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 66KTS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL 65 KTS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL ERODE THE CYCLONE TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARD, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AND BIFURCATES WITH A SMALL CLUSTER TO THE LEFT THAT INCLUDES NAVGEM, AFUM, AND EGRR. THE MAIN CLUSTER TO THE RIGHT THAT INCLUDES GFS, ECMF, EGRR, AND AEMN, AND EEMN SUGGEST A WEAK VORTEX THAT DRIFTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL (850MB) STR TO THE SOUTH. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION THAT IS LINED UP WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. NNNN