ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15NOV20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.7S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 349 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 67.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150928Z AMSR2 COMPOSITE 36 GHZ IMAGE 
FURTHER DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WRAP INTO AN 
ELONGATED LLCC AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING OF THE 
SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET 
BY VERY HIGH (40+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS DIEGO GARCIA AND 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 150830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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