WTXS31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 74.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 74.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.4S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.9S 72.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.0S 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.1S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.0S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.2S 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 73.9E. 15NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER IMPROVED WITH A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS (PGTW AND FMEE) AND MORE IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESITMATES OF T3.6/56KTS TO T3.8/58KTS, AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THEY SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATE WITH A SMALL CLUSTER TO THE LEFT THAT INCLUDES NAVGEM, AFUM, AND EGRR. THE MAIN CLUSTER TO THE RIGHT THAT INCLUDES GFS, ECMF, EGRR, AND AEMN, AND EEMN SUGGEST A WEAK VORTEX THAT DRIFTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL (850MB) STR TO THE SOUTH. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION THAT IS LINED UP WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.// NNNN