ABIO10 PGTW 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/151000Z-151800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150821ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15NOV20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 349 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.9S 66.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO 
THE SOUTHWEST. A 150221Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW 
LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 93S WILL REMAIN AT 
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 01S, AND LOSING 
STRENGTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 150830) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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