WTXS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 74.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 74.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.4S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.7S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.7S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.0S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.8S 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.5S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 74.4E. 15NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY DENSE, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE CIRCULATION FEATURES IN A 142241Z SSMIS COLOR 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS PLACED NEAR MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55KTS, PGTW AND FMEE) AND BELOW A 142012Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 66 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC ALICIA IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 65 KTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS (< 26 CELSIUS AFTER TAU 36). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE THEY SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATE WITH NVGM, AFUM, AND UEMN TRACKING TO THE EAST AND AVNO, AEMN, AND EEMN TRACKING TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72 WHICH IS LINED UP WITH THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. // NNNN