WTXS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 10.5S 76.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 76.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.5S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.4S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.0S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.0S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.5S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.1S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 22.2S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 75.8E. 14NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY DENSE, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE 141623Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW) AND T3.5/55KTS (FMEE) AND A 141622Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 70KTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS (< 26 CELSIUS AFTER TAU 48). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE THEY SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATE WITH NVGM, AFUM, AND UEMN TRACKING TO THE EAST AND GFS, AEMN, AND EEMN TRACKING THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72 WHICH IS LINED UP WITH THE MODELS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// NNNN