ABIO10 PGTW 141800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/ 141800Z-151800ZNOV2020// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZNOV2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 14NOV20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 9.1S 65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, WEAK, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 141133Z SSMIS COMPOSITE 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC, AND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. INVEST 93S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN