WTXS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 9.5S 77.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 77.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 11.6S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.7S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.5S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.5S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.5S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 76.7E. 14NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HR MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY A DEEP, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DEFINED FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 141129Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW) AND T3.5/55KTS (FIMP), AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING STR, THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND STEERING IS ASSUMED BY THE 850MB STR REFLECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THEY SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATE WITH A CLUSTER TO THE LEFT THAT INCLUDES NAVGEM, UEMN, AND EGRR, SUGGESTING A RECURVE/EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. THE CLUSTER TO THE RIGHT THAT INCLUDES GFS, AEMN, AND EEMN SUGGEST A WEAK VORTEX THAT DRIFTS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL (850MB) STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR- TO MID-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS; AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION THAT IS LINED UP WITH THE CLUSTER ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. NNNN